Betting Exchange Trading
What I Do
I have run this particular betting exchange trading strategy for four years and kept accurate results since April 2021. The strategy has been tested over thousands of bets. From April 2021, I ‘trimmed down’ the selections by eliminating the poorer performing leagues. It is this trimmed down set of results that you will find on the results page. I still monitor all the leagues – in case they ‘catch up’ in terms of profitability – but if I can achieve better profit with fewer selections, then obviously that is preferable.
I post my results in an easy to understand format of ‘one point’ for each ‘lay bet’.
A ‘point’ can be whatever value you wish. £10, £25, £50 and so on. That will then be your ‘one point stake’.
The average lay bet price is around digital odds of 2.40.
Each day I search the market for suitable bets/trades. Late afternoons and evenings during the week, then all day on Saturdays and Sundays.
Once I find a selection I send it out via Telegram (app).
During the international breaks I generally don’t advise any trades.
How Selections are Advised
Bets in the ‘Match Odds’ market are advised when a football match goes 0-1 to the away team. We then lay (bet against) the leading / away team. We want the home team to come back to draw or win.
For example: Arsenal v Liverpool. The score goes 0-1 to Liverpool. You will get a text message from me to lay Liverpool at the odds specified or better.
For example: Lay Liverpool @ 1.78
Here is a quick ‘summary’ video of how to bet my selections.
There is usually a short delay between the sending and the receiving of text messages. There is nothing I can do about this, it is a function of the modern world!
During such delay periods, the game can sometimes change (another goal or red card etc.). In such cases, some subscribers might have managed to place their bets, others not. Don’t get too hung up on missing a selection because the relevant bets could lose as well as win. Over the long term the effect is negligible, as situations like this are few and far between.
Taking our Arsenal v Liverpool example again:
If by the time you get the message Arsenal have scored to take the game to 1-1, then it’s a ‘no bet’.
If by the time you get the message Liverpool have scored again to take the game to 0-2, then it’s up to you to decide whether or not to place the lay / bet. In the latter case, the odds will be much shorter to lay at 0-2 but there is more of a chance that the home team won’t come back for the draw or win.
If by the time you get the message there is a red card to either team, then the selection is a ‘no bet’.
Sometimes selections will be a ‘no bet’ if VAR intervenes / overturns a goal.
For example: The score goes 0-1 to Liverpool. I advise the selection via text message but by the time you receive it, VAR / Referee have disallowed the goal and the score is back to 0-0.
I record all selections that meet my criteria on the results page. It is a good way to keep track if, over the long term, betting all selections is still profitable as a straight betting proposition, regardless of whether or not you trade them.
The Betting Exchange Trading Environment
Once you receive my selection via Telegram (app), you should then place it on the betting exchanges.
There is generally plenty of liquidity at the ‘lay price’ that I stipulate. You should have no problem getting your money on at this price or better. Obviously, the market fluctuates, depending on the situation on the pitch but prices are always moving in our favour. If the home team are ‘pushing’, however, it’s best not to delay too long before placing your exchange bet or trade.
I try to look at the match bets before I send them out but it’s always good for you to take a glance at the live ‘in play’ match stats or, best of all, watch the game for a short time yourself. Your results should improve as you gain more experience in reading a game.
My selections are currently profitable as ‘straight bets’, so all you have to do is choose whether or not to bet or trade my selections, to suit your style. If you are timing your entry, just be aware that a ‘major match event’, like a goal, can ‘kill’ the trade, so it is best not to wait too long before placing your initial bet.
Every strategy will eventually encounter losing or ‘flat periods’ if it runs for long enough. This is perfectly normal and usually well within the ‘realm’ of Standard Deviation. Remember, any such ‘flat’ periods are based on straight betting all my selections; by being more selective, losing months can potentially become break even months and break-even months can potentially become profitable months.
Also note that with periodic criteria analysis, the selections could become even more profitable.
I aim to bet or trade all the matches that I send out to you. Although sometimes this is not possible. If I don’t bet / trade a selection, then I will let you know. At the end of the month all selections that I’ve sent out will appear on the results page – even if I have not traded them all. The reason for this is to continue to track the overall progress of the selections.
No one can guarantee that profits will continue but I will work hard to try and make it happen. Not many people offer this much historical data, place the majority of the advised bets / trades themselves and post video blogs about their trades regularly.
The three best firms for trading on the betting exchanges in my view are:
Betfair, Matchbook and Smarkets
You can sign up to my service here.