Premier League Trading
Team form in the Premier League, be it early season, mid-season or even late season, can throw up good trading opportunities.
Take a look at Chelsea’s trading graph (courtesy of Betfair) which shows the opportunity that could have taken by the shrewd bettor early in the season, as Chelsea’s price went out to around 30/1, after a poor start.
Suffice it to say that I was not one of them! In my defence I had actually already had a small bet (it was the maximum that I cold get on at the price 13/2) on Chelsea with Intertops so at the time of Chelsea’s drift in the odds, wasn’t about to throw more money at them.
Yet would a bet on Chelsea at a big price at this stage of the season been a good bet? Maybe. Consider that since the mid-nineties, the eventual Premier League champions, have only been outside the top four after six games on two occasions. (20013/14 Man. City 7th – 1st and Man. Utd 2002/3 10th to 1st.)
Still, for a team with a ‘champions pedigree’ you might argue that 30/1 was generous.
Soon after Chelsea’s poor sequence of early results results, Antonio Conte changed Chelsea’s formation, sparking the turnaround which led to an incredible winning run that laid the foundations to them winning the Premier League title.
Below are more charts showing the potential trading opportunities for the big teams during the first half of the 2016/17 Premier League season:
These sorts of movements occur season after season and not just in the Premier League. You could look at other liquid markets in football and other sports on the betting exchanges.
At the start of any Premier League campaign there is a lot of new information to assess. New players, managers, stadiums, whether or not a team is playing in European competition, star players being sold and so on. Early season matches can often give you an indication of how teams will perform but you have to consider that ‘genius masterstrokes’ can occur as did with Conte’s Chelsea.
Below is a table that shows the average PPG (points per game) gained by each team in the Premier League 2016/17 after six matches (left column). This is then compared to the PPG for each team after thirty-eight matches at the end of the season (right column).
You can easily spot Chelsea’s notable improvement (with Stoke and West Ham saving their seasons) as well as Crystal Palace’s poor decline.
We have already stated how teams that perform well in the early part of the season / six games tend to produce the title winner between them. So it may be no surprise then, that teams that perform poorly in the early part of the season, tend to struggle.
Teams in the bottom three after six games have a terrible record, with at least one of those bottom three teams being relegated in 21/22 of the 38 match PL seasons. In 10/22 two of those three teams are relegated. All three have been relegated once in the 2006/7 season.
It’s not easy to recover from a bad start.
As a bettor you can monitor teams throughout the season and decide early on whether particular teams offer value after a good or bad start. Assess every objective and subjective angle that you can; consider a manager under pressure, the possibility of top name signings in the transfer window, team morale, disruptive players, bad press, good press, watch news conferences and briefings, read between the lines, cut through the cliches, study stats and data, and you can have some big successes.