Betting Streaks

Wouldn’t it be great if your winning and losing bets just came along as: WLWLWLWLWLWLWLWL… with just a couple of extra wins at the end..WW..which would ultimately be your profit – before the next run of bets started like that all over again.

(All the ‘WL’ examples assume even money bets for the purposes of this article.)

Boring maybe, but no stress, no second-guessing, no long losing betting streaks (or winning ones for that matter) – with just those extra ‘W’s’ or ‘L’s’ every so often to nicely define your wins and losses and determine if you are a profitable bettor or an unprofitable one.

Alas, the world is not so simple and betting streaks are a natural part of betting. Winning and losing are random in nature. Of course you will get the patterns highlighted above but much of the time you will get short and long runs of wins and losses.

This can be the ‘killer’ for many bettors. Imagine starting your run not with a WLWLWLWLWLWLWLWL but with an LLLLLLLL – this could actually spell the end for many an inexperienced bettor, it could lead them to chase their bets, doubling up their stakes or just giving up completely – when the next eight bets might yield WWWWWWWW and get them back to break even.

It’s a valid question when starting out on your betting journey. Ask yourself: “How many consecutive losses could I take? What would be the pyschological effect? Then ask: “How much of a hit would I take on my bank / betting fund?” 50%, 75%, 90%? Many people have a ‘safe’ 100 point bank – but in actuality they would not be comfortable being 70 points in the red. So is it actually a 100 point bank? Should they opt for a 130 or 150 point bank instead?

Patterns

The human brain ‘creates’ patterns. This can be problematic. Take a look below:

WLWLWLLWWLLLWLLWWWWWWXXXWWWWW

When asked to repace the X’s with a W (Win) or a L (Loss) the majority of people substitute the X’s with W’s to continue the winning betting streak.

Now look at this example:

WWWWWWLLLLLLXXXXXXLLLLLLWWWWWW

The natural tendency here is to continue the pattern and replace the X’s with WWWWWW. Are we right to do so? No. There is absolutely no reason to continue the pattern. The X’s could be any combination of W’s or L’s or all W’s or all L’s.

Predicting Betting Streaks

Is it worth trying to predict an upcoming streak for one team or another. Sometimes. Remember that sports event outcomes are often dusted with a fair bit of luck. Teams and individuals don’t always perform. Some perform better than expected. It’s the challenge for any bettor to pick apart what is likely to happen in comparison to the odds on offer.

You could analyse the following.

  1. Team Momentum – winning and losing runs.
  2. Match schedule – how easy / hard are next games.
  3. Team changes and injuries – key players out.
  4. New coaches – can boost team performance.

The above are self explanatory but also remember that a team’s winning streak always come to an end through any number of factors – often complacency. Losing streaks also come to an end – often it’s a case of pride – no one likes to be humiliated.

Odds

It’s important to understand how the odds are affected on ‘streak’ teams. The betting public generally like to follow a ‘winner’ and bet against a ‘loser’. Yet serial winning teams can end up too short in price because of their form and the public’s desire to bet on them. Similarly, the odds of the out of form team can lengthen.

You can have good successes, from a value perspective, of finding teams that you feel could come back to winning ways after a long run of losses.

Good luck with winning on betting streaks.

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